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07 May 2019

Worsening consumer sentiment erases March recovery

Worsening consumer sentiment erases March recovery

Consumer sentiment soured in April, weighed down by an uncertain economic outlook and related worries about household incomes, a new survey shows today.

The KBC Bank/ESRI consumer sentiment index fell to 87.7 in April from 93.1 in March, largely erasing a partial recovery from February’s 51-month low of 86.5.

April’s weakness “reflects the difficulty the typical Irish consumer is having in assessing how various threats may affect the Irish economy and their own household finances in the year ahead”, Austin Hughes, chief economist at KBC Bank Ireland said.

“During the survey period there was a very gloomy IMF forecast for the world economy. Consumers aren’t feeling like they’ve a lot more spending power. During April, for example, oil prices were going up which hits people in their pockets.

But the economist said that an element of caution may not be a bad thing for the economy.

“They are being cautious and that will probably sustain the economy. The caution should be seen as a good thing rather than any panic,” he explained.

Austin Hughes said there appeared at first glance to be a slight mismatch between what consumers are feeling and the statistics around employment growth and consumer spending, but, he said, the figures had to be analysed closely for a more nuanced view.

“The reality is that there are a lot more consumers rather than consumers spending more. The population is growing fast. If you look at household income, the total number rose by 12%, but if you adjust for the number of people, it’s up less than 1%. There are simply more people and while some are doing very well, on average consumers are not doing brilliantly and they’re risk averse,” he explained.

Despite being widely seen as the EU country with the most to lose from Brexit, Ireland weathered initial concerns stemming from Britain’s 2016 referendum vote, which failed to interrupt a run of five years in a row as Europe’s fastest growing economy.

But the Central Bank has said that if Britain crashes out of the EU without a deal it could knock as much as 4 percentage points off the country’s growth rate in the first full post-Brexit year.

The survey’s authors said there was little clarity on Brexit during the survey period, and while the likely postponement of the UK’s exit lessened the near-term risks, the shadow cast by the current uncertainty is a drag on consumer sentiment.

They said that Irish consumers are currently positioned for bad news.

“Only one in five consumers now expects the Irish economy to strengthen in the next 12 months whereas two in five see it becoming weaker,” the added.

One factor that consumers with a mortgage have in their favour is that interest rates don’t look like they’ll be increasing in the near future.

“The Vice President of the ECB said yesterday that the low rate environment is with us for the foreseeable future and he added that when rates rise they won’t go back to the sort of levels they were at,” Austin Hughes said.

“Changes in the world economy mean rates won’t be rising to the sort of levels we saw in the past and that reflects the fact that the economy is not growing as dynamically as it had and that taps into some of the concerns that consumers have,” he added.

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07 May 2019

Euro zone factory activity contracted for third month in April – PMI

Euro zone factory activity contracted for third month in April – PMI

Euro zone factory activity contracted for a third month in April, hurt by weak global demand, rising trade protectionism and concerns over Britain’s upcoming departure from the European Union.

IHS Markit’s April final manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index registered 47.9, beating March’s six-year low of 47.5 and just above a flash estimate of 47.8.

But that was its third month below the 50-mark separating growth from contraction.

An index measuring output change, which feeds into a composite PMI due on Monday that is seen as a good gauge of economic health, also held below break-even. It rose to 48 from 47.2 in March.

“The manufacturing sector remained deep in decline at the start of the second quarter,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit.

“The survey’s output index is indicative of factory production falling at a quarterly rate of approximately 1 percent, setting the scene for the goods-producing sector to act as a major drag on the economy in the second quarter,” he added.

The bloc’s economy expanded a slightly better-than-expected 0.4% in the first quarter, rebounding from a slump in the second half of 2018, official figures show.

An April Reuters poll predicted growth would be 0.3% this quarter and as the bloc’s prospects have dimmed, expectations for interest rate hikes from the European Central Bank were also pushed further into next year.

Although rising from recent lows, the new orders index still showed a seventh month of decline in a row.

Stocks of raw materials were run down, backlogs of work were completed at a pace not seen in over six years and headcount was barely increased.

So while optimism picked up a touch in April – the future output index rose to 55.7 from 55.5 – it remained weak compared with historical levels.

“Some encouragement can be gained from the PMIs having risen in all four largest euro member states in April, and forward-looking indicators such as future expectations, new order inflows and the orders-to-inventory ratio having all come off their lows,” Williamson said.

“But it remains too early to call a turning point,” he added.

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06 May 2019

Services growth slows in April as Brexit hits sales – PMI

Services growth slows in April as Brexit hits sales – PMI

Growth in the country’s services sector slowed in April, adding to signs that the economy began the second quarter at a more moderate pace amid the global slowdown.

The AIB services purchasing managers’ index slipped to 54.7 from 55.3 in March.

While the reading was still comfortably above the 50 mark that has separated growth from contraction since 2012, it was just above the near six-year low the series fell to in January.

The weaker expansion was driven by a fall in new orders, the sub-index for which dropped to 54.1 from 55.7, the lowest reading in two and a half years.

The services sector covers areas as diverse as communication, financial and business services, IT and the tourism trade.

“Although the rate of expansion remained solid amid reports of improved customer demand conditions both domestically and abroad, some panellists indicated that Brexit had negatively impacted on sales,” AIB’s chief economist Oliver Mangan said.

“Softer new order growth resulted in a weaker increase of backlogs. Outstanding business rose modestly in April, with the rate of accumulation easing to its slowest in 69 months,” he added.

Ireland has brushed aside the initial uncertainty from the 2016 Brexit vote, posting the fastest economic growth in the bloc for five years in a row.

However a corresponding survey for manufacturers earlier this week showed that it was growing at the slowest rate since the aftermath of the Brexit vote, also due to a moderation in new orders.

“Overall, the AIB Services PMI reading of 54.7 for April suggests that the Irish economy is continuing to expand at a good pace, though not as strong as in recent years,” Mangan said.

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06 May 2019

Exchequer broadly on track in April as deficit falls

Exchequer broadly on track in April as deficit falls

Figures released by the government show that the exchequer recorded a deficit of just under €3.2 billion at the end of April, €238 million lower than at the same period last year.

Revenue from taxes came in broadly at the level that it was expected to, with €15.6 billion received in the first four months of the year.

That represents an increase of 5.7% or €833 million on the same period in 2018.

When combined with non-tax and other revenues, the total revenue received between January and April was €17.05 billion, up 7.4% on the same period last year.

Income tax receipts came in at the predicted level for the month, but in total the amount of money received from workers since the start of the year is slightly under the target set by the Government.

Nonetheless, income tax revenue is 6.6% higher than it was at this time in 2018, the Department of Finance said.

Excise Duties were considerably higher than had been anticipated for the month, owing to the ending of the front-loading of tobacco products by tobacco companies ahead of the introduction of plain packaging.

As a result, excise receipts came in at €593 million for the month, compared to a target of €112 million.

Corporation tax receipts were €110 million behind what had been estimated in April, as a result of higher than expected repayments.

But overall for the year corporation tax revenue is €157 million higher than it was at this point one year ago.

VAT revenue was also lower than had been anticipated due to higher than expected repayments, but is ahead by €147 million or 3.0% compared to the first four months of last year.

Planned spending was 5.3% or €817 million higher than it was at the end of April a year ago, roughly in line with expectations as they were set out in the Budget.

However, additional spending, at €4.02 billion was 2.9% or €115 million higher over the four months, compared to a year earlier.

This extra expenditure was caused in the main, the Department of Finance said, by increases in Irish payments to the EU and the timing of those payments.

Elsewhere, €90 million was collected in Motor Tax in April, up 7.5% against what had been anticipated, with cumulative receipts of €356 million for far this year, €10 million ahead of 2018.

While Stamp Duty receipts were €104 million in the month, €10 million lower than targeted, but 6.6% ahead of the same period in 2018.

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03 May 2019

ECB still has ammunition left to fight recession – Lane

ECB still has ammunition left to fight recession – Lane

The European Central Bank’s policy arsenal has not been depleted and fiscal policy could help stimulate investment, the ECB’s incoming executive Board member Philip Lane has said.

Investors fear the ECB’s window to potentially raise interest rates has closed, meaning it has little in its toolkit to face the next recession.

But in some of his first public remarks since securing the job of replacing current ECB chief economist Peter Praet, Central Bank Governor Philip Lane said the ECB still had options.

“The idea that the ECB lacks potency is very far from where we are,” he told academics and diplomats at Ireland’s embassy in London.

Professor Lane added that fiscal policy could also help reduce policy uncertainty, and encourage the private sector to resume investing.

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03 May 2019

April manufacturing growth slowest since aftermath of Brexit vote – PMI

The country’s manufacturing sector grew in April at the slowest rate since the aftermath of Britain’s vote to leave the EU, a survey showed today.

This comes as new orders expanded more moderately in a Brexit-related record month for stocks of finished goods.

The economy has weathered the uncertainty created by the June 2016 vote.

The impact of Brexit, so far, has been mainly limited to a ramping up of pre-production inventories in recent months ahead of the original end of March date for Britain’s departure from the bloc.

However, the AIB manufacturing purchasing managers’ index slipped to 52.5 in April from 53.9 in March.

This was the lowest level in two-and-a-half years, as companies reported weaker demand from home and abroad.

“The reading of 52.5 is still consistent with solid growth in the sector. Despite falling in April, the Irish manufacturing PMI continues to outperform its euro zone counterpart, with stood at 47.8 in its first reading in April,” AIB’s chief economist Oliver Mangan said.

Mr Mangan also pointed to the fact that another month of growth extended the run of consecutive expansion to almost six years, while the sector slumped to a similar level in January before bouncing back.

Attempts to mitigate any potential supply disruptions from Brexit also continued in April with holdings of post-production inventories increasing at the fastest rate in the 21-year series history.

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02 May 2019

Irish banks have higher concentration of property loans than European peers – Central Bank

Irish banks have higher concentration of property loans than European peers – Central Bank

Central Bank shows that Irish banks have a higher concentration of property lending than their European peers – with the concentration mainly in residential property.

But in a Financial Stability Note, the Central Bank said the banking system here has increased its capacity to absorb shocks – including property price falls – since the financial crisis.

It said that more stable funding sources, higher capital and liquidity ratios, more intensive supervision and the introduction of macroprudential rules all contributed to this increased resilience.

The Central Bank also said that since the financial crisis, the overall level of concentration of the Irish banking system to property lending has remained relatively stable at around 70% of total balances.

It noted that the share of residential mortgages is increasing and the share of commercial real estate decreasing.

The Financial Stability Note said that property exposures have been central to many financial crises, including Ireland’s own financial crisis from 2008 to 2013.

Commercial and residential property prices declined by 67% and 51% respectively between December 2007 and September 2013.

It said that while prices have since recovered – in line with the improved economy – the level of concentration of the Irish banking system in property lending means that it remains vulnerable to potential price corrections.

This is despite the banking system having increased its ability to absorb such shocks.

The Central Bank said the research concludes that the high degree of exposure to property in the Irish banking system underlines the importance of prudent underwriting by the banking system.

“It also concludes that the Central Bank’s mortgage market measures help in this regard, by protecting banks and borrowers against a marked loosening of such underwriting.

“In doing this, the measures serve to strengthen the resilience of a concentrated system,” the Central Bank added.

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02 May 2019

Euro zone Q1 economic growth stronger than expected, unemployment falls

Euro zone Q1 economic growth stronger than expected, unemployment falls

The euro zone economy grew more than expected in the first quarter, rebounding from a slump in the second half of 2018, new data showed today.

Meanwhile, unemployment in the euro zone fell to its lowest in more than a decade, the data also revealed.

But economists said the numbers gave the European Central Bank little indication of whether to continue stimulating growth with loose monetary policy or to start tightening.

The European Union’s statistics office, Eurostat, said that according to a preliminary estimate, gross domestic product in the euro zone rose 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in the first three months of 2019.

This was up from 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2018 and 0.1% in the third.

Year-on-year, euro zone GDP rose 1.2%, the same increase as in the last quarter of 2018.

The Eurostat data include an estimate by Germany of first-quarter GDP growth in Europe’s biggest economy, which has not yet been published.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 0.3% quarterly increase and a 1.1% annual expansion.

“The recovery is getting old and no one should expect from a greybeard that he will continue to run at the pace he could achieve in his youth,” ING economist Peter Vanden Houte said.

“And indeed, the elderly are also more vulnerable to shocks. While there are still a number of risks (think of trade tensions, higher oil prices and the Brexit uncertainty) the improving international picture is likely to support eurozone exports in the coming months,” Vanden Houte said.

GDP growth should hover around 0.3% in the remainder of the year, he said, below ECB and European Commission forecasts of growth at 0.4% in the second half of 2019.

“Not great, but probably the best we can expect in the current stage of the cycle,” he said.

The ECB, which put off tightening monetary policy at the end of last year amid persistently weak inflation, had expected first-quarter growth of 0.2%, accelerating to 0.3% in the second quarter.

Separately, Eurostat said that euro zone unemployment fell to 7.7% of the workforce in March with 12.630 million people seeking jobs.

This was the lowest rate since September 2008 and compared to 7.8% of the workforce or 12.804 million people out of a job in February.

The fall in the number of jobless people is likely to eventually put upward pressure on consumer prices.

The ECB wants to see inflation below but close to 2% over the medium term.

“Today’s figures probably haven’t made the European Central Bank any wiser,” ING’s Vanden Houte said.

“The economy remains solid enough not to need extra stimulus. But at the same time not much has to go wrong to bring GDP growth to a standstill. In that regard, wait-and-see remains the most likely ECB monetary policy stance,” he said.

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02 May 2019

Unemployment rate remains at 5.4% in April – CSO

Unemployment rate remains at 5.4% in April – CSO

New Central Statistics Office figures show that the country’s unemployment rate remained at an 11-year low of 5.4% in April.

The CSO said the seasonally adjusted number of people who were without a job stood at 129,700 in April, a decrease of 10,200 when compared to the same month last year.

The unemployment rate has fallen steadily from a financial crisis peak of 16% in 2012. It had provisionally dropped as low as 5.1% last year but the figures have since been subject to a series of quarterly revisions.

Today’s CSO figures show that the unemployment rate for men in April fell to 5.2% from 6% the same time last year, while the rate for women fell to 5.5 from 5.7%.

They also reveal that the seasonally adjusted youth unemployment rate fell to 12.8% in April from 13.5% in March.

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02 May 2019

High housing costs key driver of wage demands, conference told

High housing costs key driver of wage demands, conference told

HIGH rents and housing costs are driving wage demands that have become the biggest single challenge facing businesses, according to Kevin Sheridan, managing director of Sheridan Cheesemongers.

“Rising wages puts pressure on staff numbers and has a ripple effect through the business – I think this comes from the housing crisis,” Mr Sheridan said..

“We need it fixed and fixed sustainability,” he added.

Mr Sheridan set up the cheese business with his brother in 1995.

He said that at the time there were “no jobs – rents were low so people were setting up small businesses”.

He was speaking at the ‘Family Business Values’ conference at Dublin City University yesterday, which focused on the unique experience of family-owned firms. The legacy of the late Feargal Quinn, who died last week, was remembered by a number of speakers at the event.

Speaking at the event, Keeling Fruit’s Caroline Keeling said the group was now having to deal with issues which were not a factor 15 years ago, such as sustainability and the environment.

She said the preference in choosing a leader for a family-owned business would always be for family members, but “the biggest thing is to protect the business”

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